Energy is in a bit of a rally. Yesterday with Mark I think it was pretty clear, I was shouting from the roof tops that energy will be going even lower.
Well looking at our sector Skittles chart youd really be thinking I’m dead wrong.
The things that are standing out right now to me is how the energy sectors are ahead of the pack. Nothing is showing up in negative in the sector chart.
Energy was up right around 4% for today. Whats that all about you might ask? Well, this is just more of those pesky zombie cats that have all investors standing on uncertain grounds right now.
This I just a single day and to be honest with you it couldn’t be better timing. We are starting to trade energy to the downside today with my Night Traders and this little bounce positions us even better. The stars are lining up for us better than I could have expected. I don’t want you to miss the bus with this one so check out my latest offer to get that Summer Side Portfolio on your books!
When we start to short the sector we are going to be able to ride that dead cat all the way to the true bottom. The higher it is at the start, the more we are going to be able to profit from it as it continues its fall.
Now you all know how we can use market sentiment to confirm a trade. Well analysts, Wall Street traders, and 99% of institutions are thinking that the energy market is going up. I need you to know they are on the wrong side of it.
Ive been working with most of you for quite some time now and I know you have a much better pulse on the markets than most so I passed the question on to you, do you think the markets will be HIGHER or LOWER in the next four to six weeks?
You all came out in droves and had the exact perspective I would have expected, in case you missed it or you just don’t know here is what everybody was saying in chat today.
Here is why I can stand on solid ground and say you are right the market will be heading even lower in the coming weeks.
Ive given you three things to watch and none of them have happened…
1. That pesky equity put call ratio has not gone over 1 yet
One is the magic number, no it’s not magic It is a proven indicator that market sentiment has tilted too far to one side. In other words everybody has run out of the theater at this point, they realize it’s on fire and they don’t want to be stuck waiting to be rescued while their account burns. The CBOE equity put call ratio, in my opinion is the single best SIMPLE indicator that you can watch to see if we have hit a tradable bottom, meaning we should expect the market to head the other direction for the next four to six weeks.
2. The spike in the VIX yet
As traders I’m sure we all have a number in our head that tells us it is time to start trading the volatility. We have seen VIX trending higher but, that just means the market is prepared for volatility. Its allowing for the whiplash moves we have been seeing all over the place. Sometimes we will even see days we are up 2-3% but after that we see it level out and that’s when we start to see the new traders creating some noise in the trends. Mark said in the Chat that VIX needs to break 40 personally I’d love to see it crack 45, which indicates to us that everybody is running from the market. That is the best time to get in there and start buying deals but it just hasn’t happened yet!
3. S&P 500 and QQQ roll higher
If the S&P and QQQ have their 50 day moving average level off and start to roll higher, we see VIX break 40, and the Equity put call ratio breaks one that’s when I’m going to jump in the markets and start just blindly buying stocks that have been on my list for months!
Until then, we need to be picking the markets apart slowing things down and picking the battels we engage in carefully.
In case you want the full story on why I’m bearish on energy and so much more click here for the replay.
Quantitative Specialist, Penny Hawk
July 07 2022