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If you need a laugh for a second, the current situation surrounding the Debt Ceiling reminds me of a Seinfeld episode.  Remember the episode when Cramer test drives the Saab to find out how far he can go on an…

  As I start my normal “Walk Down Main Street” on Monday night the three things that this market is going to be focused on couldn’t be any clearer.   First, of course, is A.I. In case you missed it, NVIDIA…

As I’m sure all of you know a friend of mine – Kenny Glick – continues to make the claim that we are in a bull market.  He says to avoid shorting the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) because…

We’re in the heat of earnings season for retail, and we’re getting a feel for how well the consumer is weathering through the recent slowdown in the credit cycle.  That’s right, the credit cycle, or what we will refer to…

Depending on who you ask about the market right now, you’ll get a variety of answers. Some people are hellbent that this is the beginning of a new bull market. Others, such as myself, realize that this market is still disconnected…

We’re kicking off the week with a familiar feeling – being a little nervous while simultaneously saying to ourselves, “There’s no way.” I Don’t Want To, But We Need To Talk Debt Ceiling There’s no way they won’t come to…

Surely you’ve heard me say this before… “Volatility is a trader’s best friend.” But let that sink in for a minute, and I’ll explain to you why you should like volatility. First, let’s establish that there are two different approaches…

Here we go, the earnings season is finally setting its sights on the retail sector, as companies like Home Depot Inc (HD), Walmart Inc (WMY), Target Corp (TGT), and TJX Companies (TJX) start providing their results and guidance. Just like…

Yesterday, the New York Fed dropped its household debt report. The findings were pretty eye-opening – even for me, someone whose been pounding the “credit-reliant” drum a lot throughout the past couple of months. Usually, after the winter holidays, people…

Biotech Stocks are Getting Ready to Breakout 8Baller and I covered this chart late last week, and it looks coverage worthy again, as the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is preparing to break to the top of its recent range with…

If you’re keeping score at home – and let’s face it, we’re all keeping score – the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) squeaked out another weekly win last week. However, during the same timeframe, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)…

What is Technical Analysis? In its simplest form, technical analysis is the study of price. Of course, you can climb deeper than that but for now, we’ll stick with the study of price. From trendlines to stochastics, oscillators, and other…

Here we go again…  Fresh regional bank headlines crossed the wire at 7:40 this morning, as PacWest Bancorp (PACW) shares dropped 20% in the pre-market trading session.   The headlines meshed well with others from earlier in the week that implied…

Well, the markets are grinding their way through hump day with some volatility despite the CPI report delivering some good news ahead of the market open. This has some traders asking “Why?” – but we already know one of the…

A week or so ago, I ordered a package on Amazon.  Don’t worry, this isn’t me patting myself on the back for something seemingly everyone does every day.  But bear with me, because this story definitely paints a broader picture. …

That air you heard coming out of the banking sector on Monday was partially due to a little-read report (until things get interesting) from the Fed.  It’s called the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on bank lending practices – or…

You know I consume the news like Joey Chestnut on Coney Island. Well, this one stopped me in my tracks… Now, the full quote is, “It’s widely agreed that financial and economic chaos will ensue.” This calls for a quick…

Traders jumped right in to buy the regional banks late in the trading week, as they sensed a short-term bottom may be in place. I’ll put it to you that we’re just seeing a new “Standing Eight Count” on this…

Just yesterday – I mean, literally, just yesterday – I warned you there was a volatility storm brewing in the markets. Now, one day doesn’t make for a trend, but volatility storms are usually triggered by conditions very similar to…

If you missed it Wednesday morning, I talked about how my “Walk Down Main Street” approach has pinpointed the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and its constituent stocks as one of the most critical segments of the market at this…

The FOMC decision came this afternoon, but who are we kidding, it’s been made for a while. And for what it’s worth, the market has already priced in that decision – to raise rates another 0.25% and hold out for…

Yesterday, I mentioned Charlie Munger (aka “Mt. Munger”), the 99-year old almost-perpetual bull, and his prediction of trouble ahead in commercial real estate. According to Munger, the banks are packed with bad loans.  Now, if you’ve been plugged into Penny…

Six months… That’s how long this market has been trading within some relatively tight ranges.   But that appears ready to change.  Over the last week, I’ve noticed that the list of stocks that were experiencing their own volatility squeezes was…

As a technical trader, I am always looking for incongruities on the market to identify trades. Well, the Nasdaq 100 Index has been struggling to get itself into positive territory today. After outperforming the rest of the market on strong…

The markets are coming off a winning week after the S&P 500 (SPY) moved 1% higher powered by a familiar friend – large-cap technology.  But there was something missing, as one of the more important tech sectors was not only…

There are currently 32 companies in the S&P 500 that are trading within 1% of their 200-day moving average (MA200). What makes this interesting is that people are still of the mindset that everything is fine and the market is…

In the immediate wake of the Silicon Valley Bank disaster, we talked about the banking sector like a raging housefire across the street.  These spectacles are hard to ignore for the entire neighborhood – understandably so.  However, at the end…

The big tech earnings coming this week are top of mind for most people — and for good reason. But with the impact it has on the market, we’d be foolish to not be preparing for next week’s FOMC meeting….

I told you last week that I’m bearish oil.  That piece was a fundamental analysis of the situation that uniquely impacts the price of this commodity.  When Tesla sees demand drop, it has to lower the price of its cars…

I’m sure you’ve heard by now that I’ve been working on a new filter to find contracting Bollinger bands. This is going to revolutionize my process in bringing you the best trade possible because now, with a single click, I…

After spending the first four days of the week dropping, the United States Oil ETF (USO) saw a bump today.  Traders and investors alike are losing their minds. Oil at $100? The narrative is stronger than ever.   Yeah, right.   This…

Look, it’s no secret that I love the Bollinger Bands. I talk about them all the time because I’ve been honing my skills with them more and more. They can be an extremely effective tool in ANY market – but…

Let’s use our imagination for a second.  You’re in the boxing ring against Muhammad Ali (yikes), and he lands a powerful right hook that sends you tumbling to the mat.  In this hypothetical, you’re not dead (somehow). Instead, you push…

we have a market that’s moving higher – but nobody is willing to push it beyond this point. Right now, nobody is selling, and nobody is buying. And it’s all because we are in a market that is lacking confidence …

It’s easy to get lost in the day-to-day bustle of the market sometimes.  You hear me mention certain technical indicators and different jargon often, but sometimes I think it’s helpful to slow things down a little to ensure you’re with…

Chances are you’ve heard this saying before…  “Sell before May and go away.”  It has to do with seasonality and the historical trends of given months.  Except here is the thing… It is a complete and utter fallacy.  Maybe it’s…

Semiconductors are hot right now. Whether you’re talking about NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), or another company, those pesky little chips are all over the place. They’ve got a history. Everybody who thinks they first appeared in…

I got a text from my realtor yesterday.  Now, before I go any further, that’s not a common occurrence – it’s not like we link up every Tuesday and play gin rummy.  The subject of that text was – surprise,…

Let’s talk about the New Fed in Town: Commercial lending banks. (Currently working on the jingle for the New Fed in Town game show – will report back.) The banks with feet on the ground in cities like Cincinnati, Idaho…

The market spent all weekend frothing at the mouth after seeing Friday’s jobs report.  The numbers weren’t great, and today marked the first opportunity for traders to react.  However, it’s less about the present impact and more what it says…

I’m not being hyperbolic when I say that this is the most important earning season of your life.  With major banks set to begin announcing in roughly nine days, the market is sitting on pins and needles.  I don’t need to…

I’ve been trading with a combination of technical analysis, fundamentals, and market sentiment for as long as I can remember… There is one key to this puzzle that Always gives me a bit of a funny feeling in my gut,…

Back in February, some technical indicators set off my Spidey senses.  I didn’t have a crystal ball. Trust me, if I did, I would have opened up a lot more positions.  But at the time, I went short Huntington Bancshares…

We are starting off a short week for the markets. Oftentimes, on short weeks like this one, people take time away with the family with the thought that there’s not going to be any real action to trade. Well, that’s…

I’ve been waiting for the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) number all week long.  In fact, I said I wouldn’t be placing any trades until that number gets released, as traders know this is the Fed’s favorite indicator of inflation.  Well,…

We all remember those childhood summer days spent playing with a beach ball in the pool or ocean.  There was just something exhilarating about pushing it as far as you could under the water and letting go – just to…

This market is turning into the most intricate Rube Goldberg machine the world has ever known. First, it’s inflation running wild to get the ball rolling. Then, JPOW and his band of Fed heads hit the dominos with rate hikes,…

The morning started the same as any other.  Set my coffee maker, took the dog outside, booted up the computer, sat down, and started scouring the news.  Except, when I tell you how close I was to having to go…

The market got its first piece of good news from the banking missteps over the last two weeks, as North Carolina’s First Citizens went garage-sale shopping in Silicon Valley this weekend. This is the news the market is going to…

A trader’s psychology… There was a study done that shows it only takes a third of a second to decide to buy a stock or let it fall to the wayside. Any time more than that is just you trying…

You can argue the merits of relying on a groundhog to determine the length of winter.  That doesn’t change that every year, one way or another, people let headlines about shadows make them happy or sad.  Well, it’s starting to…

The Federal Reserve,  or the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It plays a crucial role in regulating the country’s economy by setting monetary policy, managing inflation, and promoting economic growth.  However, the Fed’s decisions can…

Last night, CBS’s 60 Minutes reran a particularly timely feature.  It was about how the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) takes over a failing bank under the cloak of darkness and reopens it.  Given the recent banking crisis, this was…

The Federal Reserve meeting this week is not only important to stock investors, but also to those who have ventured into the crypto market. We will be seeing Jerome Powell hit the podium to announce what the Fed is going…

With this banking fiasco, we’ve seen the overall market take a turn for the worse.  As you know, I’ve been saying we hadn’t reached out long-term bottom yet, and that all of those rallies we saw were nothing more than…

There are a few hot sectors in the market. Whether it’s the safe havens or the risk-on sectors, a few always stand out above the crowd… Right now there are 11 major sectors that can be found in the S&P…

SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) are on everybody’s screens in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. And why not? These things fell like rocks.  That downward action looks like if I…

The CPI came in better than expected this morning – and by that I mean it hit its mark right on the head.  This is – at face value – great for the market as it didn’t offer any surprises….

The last three days have been gut-wrenching for the market as I had to take care of some things outside of the office. Luckily, I was still able to get in and manage some of my positions for all three…

Our buddy Jerome Powell sat before congress this week to perform his two-day semiannual monetary policy testimony. And yes I use the word perform with specific intent… And for what it’s worth, not a single thing that was said should…

There was likely at least one pleasant surprise in your portfolio yesterday. I’m talking about the roughly 4% bounce from none other than Apple Inc (AAPL). Of course, it isn’t all that surprising to see it rally when it’s the…

In recent years, day trading has become increasingly popular.   It could be that the advances in trading tech have made it more accessible. For others, it’s the reduced cost of trade transactions. Or maybe people just like the flexibility,…

Mark Haines called me out back in the day saying I was using Voodoo science to trade the market. When he said it, I was taken back a bit as he referred to how I use the market sentiment and…

There’s been a lot of chatter around the idea of a “no-landing” scenario with the economy coming out of inflation and fighting off a recession.  Prior to the momentum behind “no landing” picking up last month, everybody was all about…

Thankfully, prices at the local gas pump have come down from last year. Of course, as consumers were less strained at the pumps, they likely started paying less attention to the markets behind oil and natural gas. That would be…

On Thursday, I explained that we’re heading into the most dangerous weeks of the year for the market: Week 9. Nobody knows for sure why it happens.  Regardless, we know that the S&P 500 drops an average of 1% each…

I’ve been hinting at this topic since the beginning of the year, and it’s time we cover it more in-depth. You see, this one little piece of seasonality data can serve the market with a devastating blow. And worse yet,…

Below is a headline I saw the other day on Market Watch… For those who are unaware, Mike Wilson is the chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley. He would be considered an expert, to say the least. And he has…

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for some reason didn’t have the effects on the market that you would expect… The market as a whole this week has been quiet and the volume is nowhere to…

I want the market to be truly bullish as much as anyone, so this brings me no joy to say – but there’s even more evidence mounting for a bearish outlook in the immediate future. I know the markets have…

If you’ve traded with me over the last year, you’ve experienced the uncanny ability of the $10 price to change the thinking on Wall Street. When the market was in full-on bear mode, placing a winning trade was almost as…

You always hear me talk about round numbers being natural points of resistance and support in the market. Well, that isn’t just an Idea – you can look at a stock and watch the price bounce around these round numbers…

With the bullish action in the market, that little voice in our heads is getting louder… “Go out and buy anything. This is a throw-a-dart-at-the-wall moment – anything’s going to win,” it whispers. People are giving in to that emotional…

Investors are forgetting the cardinal rule of trading: Don’t Fight the Fed… Take Carvana Co. (CVNA) rocketing up 58% in a single day. A move like this should NEVER happen on a hot garbage stock like this, yet it did……

We’ve all heard of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  It keeps track of the rate of inflation in a basket of goods like used cars or even eggs. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases it every month, investors…

There aren’t many worse feelings than holding a stock through a precipitous fall. You spend eons replaying moments in your head, wishing you took a different course of action. Well, I’m here today to issue a warning. In doing my…

Garrett Baldwin said it yesterday morning – “the United States government is officially out of money.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she’ll be able to take “extraordinary measures” to help fund government operations and service our $31 trillion debt, but…

The market is getting two different, competing messages: We’re going to pull off the soft landing or a recession is certain to hit.  I last saw it on a Contrarian blog, but it’s mainstream, too; you can hear it from…

Dear Trader, The earnings season has kicked off and this week we are going to start seeing headline after headline come our way. I’ll be honest, there are 71 companies reporting, and most people either don’t have the bandwidth to…

Dear Trader,   We are starting to see earnings hit the tape from the big banks and the whole market is watching. On a company-by-company basis, earnings are important, but if you want to trade like me and avoid the…

  This morning I asked everybody if – based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at expectations –  they thought the market was starting a bull run. I wanted to know how many of you thought that the…

There have been more than a few signals that bank stocks are set for a rough 2023. Yet despite the layoffs and bonus reductions, SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has not threatened the low we saw back in July. But…

We have been talking about unusual volatility a lot lately, whether it be due to low volume or the headlines sending traders into a frenzy.  But there is no better tool to predict volatility than the Bollinger bands, and they…

No one factor is going to derail the energy trade; there are many at work here spanning technical data, global influences, and overall trader sentiment. If you look at the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) chart, it is in…

There aren’t many tools at a trader’s disposal that give a clearer look ahead at the market than open interest configuration (OI). This allows us to see where the money is in the market by showing the total number of…

Tesla (TSLA) has been on the ‘golden boy” list of stocks for quite some time. It has been the window dressing for all the large funds who want to say “hey, look at what you get when you put your…

Alright, everyone, it’s time to stop asking about the Santa Claus rally. It’s not coming this year. This is going to be a year of reflection, thought, and maybe a little fear. However, there was something yesterday that was extremely…

The holidays are behind us and everybody is making their returns and buying the gifts that they really wanted. Investors and traders are making their way back home and getting situated and prepared for the new year.  This puts the…

Back in September, I showed you XHB – the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF – was performing outside the bounds of rationality. On September 9, when I told you about it, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was a house of…

You know just as well as I do that avoiding the headline risk in your portfolio is extremely important, especially right now as the market looks to latch onto something other than the Fed. Avoiding the headlines does NOT mean…

We’ve seen five straight weeks of investors and traders biting their nails over each data point compounded by the building anxiety of the Fed’s December interest rate decision. The market has been unwilling to move one direction or another for…

Dear Reader,   I want to bring an important distinction to your attention… The difference between “stopwatch” and “calendar” traders. Don’t get me wrong, day trading – which is living by the stopwatch – can be plenty profitable. But there…

This chart is the simplest depiction of the different stages of a market rally or decline in terms of sentiment. It is extremely useful to apply to market environments to help make forward-thinking projections. The reasoning is simple. Every investor…

The market is vacillating all over the place right now as traders are still digesting this morning’s Producer Price Index (PPI). But the market has been using this week to go off the rails, and it has caused one of…

Bear-market rallies are nothing new. They provide moments of hope and opportunity during otherwise trying times. People can make a pretty penny, too. I’ve seen plenty of people make 20% returns on their portfolios in a matter of weeks. Of…

Let’s get back to the one thing that we can start to actually put a pin in, the numbers. It’s a market built on expectations and yes, repetition.  It’s all thanks to the traders. Bear Market Rallies are nothing new. …

The sector activity represents the sentiment in the market… nobody knows where to go, except in the case of energy which is acting like the QQQ in November of 2021…. JUST BUY THE DIPS.  That, of course, will be a…

Predicting the point at which an index switches directions is an inexact science – unless you’ve got math on your side. And in this instance, thanks to our friend Leonardo de Pisa – creator of the Fibonacci sequence – we’re…

  There is one surefire way to find volatility in the market as a technician of trading. If you have been with me for any length of time, you know that I am a technical trader. And, if you have…

I’ve been talking about market breadth a lot lately – the number of companies, as a percentage of the S&P 500, currently trading higher than their 50-day moving average (MA50).  The benefit of using this as a sentiment indicator is…